How to Deal With Outside Factors in Business
Today is the 10th December 2024 and the streets of Barcelona are dead. The shopping season should be in full swing, but for the past month we have seen less footfall in the streets than almost ever (pandemic excluded) and obviously we can see this reflected in poorer than average sales for the time of year. How do we deal with such setbacks? Can we prepare ourselves for negative shocks? Can we find a way to become stronger in difficult moments? These are all questions I am pondering today.
Whenever I consider these topics I am always drawn to Nassim Taleb’s writings on the subjects (regardless of what I think about him as a person, you have to give credit where credit is due). His Incerto series of books deal with the randomness of the world around us and how it impacts the decisions we make in day to day life. It is an extremely well thought out series with some good insights into our behaviours and helps to shed light across the heuristics of how we respond to randomness.
In his book ‘Fooled by Randomness’ Taleb highlights that we over prepare for common occurrences and regularly under provision for less probable events. If you offer someone a 1 in 1000 chance of something happening then likely they will consider the event extremely unlikely to happen. However, and this is a big however, we do not live in a single stage world. We live in a multi stage one where the 1/1000 is repeated day in day out, which actually gives you a likelihood of something happening just under every 3 years. We have been fooled! The point here is that we are very bad at understanding unlikely events, and given that we should probably make more provision for them and recognise that they are likely to happen!
That brings us to the current state of events here in Spain. Last month parts of the country saw major flooding with people dying and property damage in the hundreds of millions of Euro range. Naturally, this has slowed down the tourism industry as generally people aren’t keen on being involved with natural disasters on during their holidays! Yet, for a country that is fuelled by the tourism industry this has immediate and lasting effects.
So, can we learn from Nasim and become Anti-Fragile? Can we prepare ourselves in such a way that when negative shocks happen we actually get stronger?
In our case, I believe we have a few options. One is to be constantly prepared financially. Often when moments like this arrive opportunity follows as the unprepared will often close stores and go out of business. We must be prepared to strike at this time. Secondly, a footfall slowdown gives us extended windows to work on improving stores and products without impacting our sales as negatively. Currently we are doing a huge amount of work to our retail locations at an unseasonal time to take advantage of this slowdown. Finally, we have to realise that we can’t control these external events. They will happen regardless, so we must focus on ourselves and our preparation for them.
Whilst all of this is easy to say, it is much harder in practice and not normal business practice for the majority of people and companies. It takes discipline and opens you up to criticism in boom times to make provisions for winter, but when winter comes you will reap the dividends and find opportunities to grow.